Thursday, April 02, 2015

On Search Theory, Career Choice, and the Fear of Chance (A draft meditation)

by Max Kornblith

“If you don’t like what’s being said, then change the conversation” – Don Draper

In this essay:
Aziz Ansari on luck and dating
My “passion dilemma”
The unacknowledged co-conspirator in life
Living with messiness

The formula for love

In the midst of a course on probability, my college statistics professor revealed the “solution” to the problem of dating. He told us that, upon granting a few assumptions*, search theory—the statistical toolset honed for the rapid selection of a proverbial needle from a haystack—suggests an optimal approach to picking a mate. Proceed through one third of the maximum number of partners you expect to have the opportunity to date in life, he instructed, and then, having used this experience to set a baseline, settle down with the next candidate whose overall quality exceeds that of anyone you’ve already dated. This approach balances the risk of settling for what’s too easily available versus that of holding out too long for perfection.

The proposal may be computationally simple, but it raises irksome questions: